The war with Iran already has cost U.S. consumers more than $100 billion in direct costs for our gasoline purchases. That’s about $800 per family since the war began in February — and that figure is increasing every day that the war drags on.
However, what we are paying at the pump because of this so-called war is nothing compared to the coming shock of heating oil prices for the 20% of Mass. residents who use oil to heat their homes.
The average price for a gallon of heating oil already is a jaw-dropping $6.15 per gallon, which represents a staggering 75% increase above the average price of $3.52 per gallon at this time last year.
This means that a fill-up of 200 gallons for a family’s oil tank will cost about $1250, a figure that is completely unaffordable for many and that will strain the budgets for most.
Natural gas prices are not predicted to increase as much, but the 50% of Mass. residents who heat their homes with natural gas are expected to see an increase of up to 15% in their heating bills this winter.
Even if the war with Iran were to end tomorrow, the significant disruptions to the world’s energy supply chains that already have occurred would not bring significant relief from the current elevated prices for gasoline, diesel, and home heating oil.
In short, there is no relief in sight — and there is the likely prospect (depending on weather around the country and more supply shocks) of prices going even higher.
The only hope we have for making it through the winter heating season without emptying our wallets is to pray for a warmer-than-normal winter. Even so, we still should plan on lowering our thermostats — and wearing heavy sweaters — in our homes.
Was this weekend’s nor’easter a preview of things to come?
This weekend’s long-lasting storm brought torrential rain, high winds, and some coastal flooding for almost four full days. The miserable conditions made life difficult for most of us — but it was not nearly as severe as it could have been.
Those who live along the coast were fortunate that the predicted high tides (in the range of 10.4 feet) during the 72-hour period were not unusually high. Combined with the storm surge of about 2.5 feet, the highest tide of this past weekend was 12.9 feet — enough to flood some low-lying areas, but not a devastating surge.
By comparison, the highest tide ever recorded in Boston Harbor was 15.16 feet on January 4, 2018 (which exceeded the 15.10 tide of the Blizzard of ‘78). That epic high tide, which flooded the Boston Seaport and the Blue Line at Aquarium station, occurred during a “King Tide” of 12.1 feet.
The 14.67 high tide two months later on March 2 was predicted to have been a 10.21 tide — but there was a storm surge of almost 4.5 feet that bumped it up to the third highest high tide in Boston history.
If you do the arithmetic, you can see where we’re going here as we look ahead to the coming winter months.
Meteorologists tell us that while the historic El Nino that is occurring right now prevents the formation of hurricanes, it encourages the type of long-lasting coastal nor’easters that we experienced this weekend.
We were lucky that this storm occurred during a period of low high tides. In addition, the storm occurred in September. The power outages that affected thousands of residents were just an inconvenience, unlike in winter, when below-freezing temperatures can be life-threatening.
However, the high tides in October, November, December, and January will exceed 11 feet, with the highest occurring over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays at 11.5.
Let’s hope that the El Nino-fueled nor’easters that will be coming our way this winter — and we know they’ll be coming — do not occur during these periods of extreme high tides. Winter nor’easters typically feature stronger winds, and if the rain we experienced this weekend had been snow, it would have been measured in feet. A storm similar to this weekend during a high-tide cycle in winter will be an epic natural disaster.
More than ever, all of us will be at the mercy of Mother Nature this coming winter — and we should be prepared to batten down the hatches.